The CIPD is claiming that a rise in the number of 'hidden jobless' means that although headline unemployment has remained below 2.5m, the ‘real unemployment figure’ is over 4.5m.
According to the CIPD's chief economist, John Philpott, in addition to the published figure of 2.44m unemployed, there are more than 2.1m ‘hidden jobless' who want to work, plus almost 1m currently working part time because they cannot find full-time positions. He added that: “The best our weak jobs market can look forward to in the near term is an anemic recovery. This might trigger a further avalanche of redundancies later this year."
Just for the record, the published number of unemployed stems from a weighted three month average of a continuous survey of the UK workforce. To qualify as ‘unemployed’, a person must be not employed, seeking work and be available for work. The survey does not ask women over 60, men over 65, nor teenagers under 16 about their job seeking intentions. If these people were included, they could swell the ranks of the unemployed substantially. Also excluded from the figures are those who are not working but who might like to get a job sometime. In addition, those working part time may want a full time job and, although they are not unemployed (and so not part of the statistics), they are under-employed.
Over the years, the unemployment figures have been massaged and redefined by the Government of the day – of whatever political persuasion. Currently, jobs are scarce and the length of time people are in the ‘seeking work’ category increases because they are unemployed for longer.
However, crucially in the current economic climate, the unemployment figure can’t give any indication of any person’s likelihood of getting a job within a given time. And, if you happen to be unemployed, the answer to that should be important than knowing how many other people are in the same state as you are.
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13 years ago